— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
71¢
aifs
60¢
icon
58¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
41¢
hres
36¢
eps
26¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F9¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F35¢
78–79°F21¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,463 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.9 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape