— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
wn2
46¢
aifs
46¢
icon
37¢
hres
20¢
nbm
13¢
eps
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F17¢
76–77°F24¢
78–79°F24¢
80–81°F16¢
82–83°F7¢
84–85°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape