— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
wn2
50¢
aifs
48¢
icon
42¢
hres
30¢
nbm
23¢
eps
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F14¢
76–77°F21¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F17¢
82–83°F10¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape