— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
57¢
icon
53¢
aifs
50¢
eps
39¢
ndfd
22¢
nbm
20¢
wn2
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F7¢
68–69°F10¢
70–71°F13¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F15¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F6¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F2¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE76 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape