— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
55¢
nbm
52¢
icon
38¢
wn2
36¢
aifs
23¢
hres
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F7¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F13¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F12¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCI-20261027-TMAX-GE67 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape