— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
98¢
aifs
87¢
wn2
86¢
hres
73¢
icon
68¢
nbm
55¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F13¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F10¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,205 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.906 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape