— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
17¢
wn2
7¢
ndfd
5¢
icon
4¢
hres
1¢
eps
1¢
nbm
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F10¢
78–79°F17¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F14¢
86–87°F8¢
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE90 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape