— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
80¢
aifs
73¢
eps
64¢
nbm
59¢
ndfd
56¢
hres
55¢
icon
35¢
rrfs
32¢
hrrr
20¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
76–77°F2¢
78–79°F9¢
80–81°F25¢
82–83°F34¢
84–85°F22¢
86–87°F7¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape