— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
72¢
hres
59¢
wn2
55¢
ndfd
54¢
eps
41¢
icon
41¢
nbm
40¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F16¢
80–81°F28¢
82–83°F28¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F5¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,414 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE82 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape