— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
40¢
aifs
26¢
wn2
20¢
hres
20¢
ndfd
10¢
nbm
1¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F3¢
76–77°F8¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F22¢
82–83°F22¢
84–85°F16¢
86–87°F8¢
88–89°F3¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261026-TMAX-GE88 · opened 2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape