— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
40¢
hres
36¢
wn2
31¢
icon
23¢
eps
5¢
nbm
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F5¢
78–79°F12¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F24¢
84–85°F20¢
86–87°F11¢
88–89°F4¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMCO-20261027-TMAX-GE87 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:19+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape