— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
hres
75¢
nbm
53¢
aifs
42¢
eps
41¢
icon
27¢
wn2
26¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F26¢
76–77°F23¢
78–79°F13¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,255 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.905 vs climatology 8.863.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE79 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape