— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
13¢
hres
5¢
aifs
4¢
nbm
3¢
ndfd
3¢
eps
1¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
66–67°F1¢
68–69°F3¢
70–71°F9¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F22¢
76–77°F22¢
78–79°F15¢
80–81°F7¢
82–83°F3¢
84–85°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,156 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.161 vs climatology 8.875.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261019-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-12T07:48:12+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape