— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
35¢
hres
26¢
eps
16¢
wn2
15¢
icon
11¢
rrfs
4¢
ndfd
2¢
hrrr
1¢
nbm
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F16¢
78–79°F29¢
80–81°F28¢
82–83°F15¢
84–85°F4¢
86–87°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-14T10:32:45+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape