— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
50¢
wn2
44¢
hres
38¢
icon
35¢
eps
26¢
ndfd
12¢
nbm
5¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
72–73°F1¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F12¢
78–79°F22¢
80–81°F26¢
82–83°F20¢
84–85°F10¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 14,413 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.902 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261023-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-10-17T04:41:37+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape