— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
wn2
37¢
aifs
31¢
eps
30¢
hres
23¢
icon
22¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
70–71°F1¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F11¢
76–77°F19¢
78–79°F23¢
80–81°F20¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F6¢
86–87°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 14,315 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.48 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261025-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-18T08:01:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape