— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
aifs
38¢
wn2
31¢
eps
15¢
hres
12¢
icon
9¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F3¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F18¢
78–79°F20¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F12¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261026-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:03+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape