— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
79¢
wn2
77¢
hres
74¢
aifs
64¢
nbm
54¢
icon
39¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F2¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F17¢
78–79°F20¢
80–81°F18¢
82–83°F13¢
84–85°F7¢
86–87°F3¢
88–89°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 7, scored on 8,387 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.601 vs climatology 8.75.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMEM-20261027-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-10-20T10:53:30+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape