— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
58¢
ndfd
56¢
wn2
54¢
aifs
48¢
hres
30¢
nbm
25¢
icon
12¢
rrfs
6¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F19¢
84–85°F34¢
86–87°F28¢
88–89°F11¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,459 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.516 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMIA-20261020-TMAX-GE86 · opened 2026-10-13T08:03:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape