— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
91¢
wn2
75¢
icon
71¢
nbm
67¢
aifs
63¢
ndfd
55¢
hres
48¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F0¢
80–81°F4¢
82–83°F18¢
84–85°F34¢
86–87°F29¢
88–89°F12¢
90–91°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,410 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.692 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMIA-20261021-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-18T15:41:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape