— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
77¢
aifs
61¢
wn2
59¢
ndfd
54¢
icon
45¢
nbm
41¢
hres
35¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F3¢
80–81°F13¢
82–83°F29¢
84–85°F32¢
86–87°F18¢
88–89°F5¢
90–91°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,312 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.165 vs climatology 8.861.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMIA-20261023-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:33+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape