— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
rrfs
100¢
aifs
95¢
nbm
91¢
eps
77¢
icon
76¢
hres
75¢
ndfd
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F0¢
64–65°F7¢
66–67°F33¢
68–69°F42¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 14,511 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.514 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261021-TMAX-GE66 · opened 2026-10-15T15:34:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape