— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
73¢
wn2
70¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
44¢
icon
37¢
eps
24¢
hres
21¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F19¢
66–67°F28¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-10-17T15:24:40+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape