daily prop · Milwaukee, WI · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Thu Oct 22

Milwaukee runs hot-for-here: 72°F+ · Thu Oct 22

5¢

american +1838 · decimal 19.38

on the tape

72°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 72°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

wn2		66¢
aifs		52¢
eps		10¢
hres		6¢
ndfd		5¢
icon		2¢
rrfs		0¢
nbm		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F19¢

66–67°F28¢

68–69°F25¢

70–71°F14¢

72–73°F4¢

74–75°F1¢

calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 14,512 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.688 vs climatology 8.841.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMKE-20261022-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-10-15T07:49:43+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape