— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
100¢
aifs
97¢
icon
85¢
eps
65¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
54¢
hres
51¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F7¢
64–65°F13¢
66–67°F19¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F11¢
74–75°F5¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 14,364 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.162 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261024-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-10-19T04:30:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape