— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
67¢
hres
58¢
icon
57¢
nbm
54¢
wn2
53¢
aifs
24¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
50–51°F1¢
52–53°F2¢
54–55°F4¢
56–57°F7¢
58–59°F10¢
60–61°F14¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F15¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F6¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
76–77°F0¢
calibration receipt: lead 6, scored on 14,266 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.855 vs climatology 8.854.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMKE-20261026-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-10-19T07:33:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape