— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
92¢
hres
79¢
rrfs
76¢
nbm
58¢
ndfd
56¢
eps
49¢
wn2
43¢
icon
41¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
78–79°F1¢
80–81°F5¢
82–83°F17¢
84–85°F31¢
86–87°F29¢
88–89°F14¢
90–91°F4¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,472 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.568 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260911-TMAX-GE84 · opened 2026-09-07T14:03:25+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape