— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
100¢
rrfs
81¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
55¢
nbm
55¢
hres
40¢
wn2
36¢
icon
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
68–69°F1¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F24¢
76–77°F27¢
78–79°F19¢
80–81°F8¢
82–83°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,423 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.751 vs climatology 9.329.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260912-TMAX-GE75 · opened 2026-09-08T03:38:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape