— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
97¢
rrfs
95¢
icon
93¢
aifs
88¢
hres
81¢
wn2
77¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F5¢
68–69°F14¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F27¢
74–75°F18¢
76–77°F7¢
78–79°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,640 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.747 vs climatology 9.295.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260916-TMAX-GE69 · opened 2026-09-12T15:20:11+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape