— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
11¢
nbm
8¢
eps
8¢
aifs
3¢
hres
2¢
ndfd
2¢
wn2
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F5¢
64–65°F14¢
66–67°F25¢
68–69°F27¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F7¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 12,845 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260918-TMAX-GE83 · opened 2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape