— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
63¢
wn2
58¢
ndfd
56¢
nbm
47¢
hres
42¢
aifs
15¢
icon
2¢
rrfs
1¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F8¢
66–67°F18¢
68–69°F25¢
70–71°F23¢
72–73°F15¢
74–75°F6¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 12,796 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.739 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260919-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-15T16:19:10+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape