— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
98¢
wn2
87¢
eps
83¢
aifs
75¢
hres
73¢
nbm
72¢
ndfd
56¢
icon
43¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F3¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F12¢
76–77°F4¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 12,749 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.95 vs climatology 9.255.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260920-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-09-16T03:36:17+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape