— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
66¢
nbm
56¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
39¢
hres
29¢
icon
24¢
aifs
17¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F8¢
64–65°F16¢
66–67°F21¢
68–69°F21¢
70–71°F16¢
72–73°F8¢
74–75°F4¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,698 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260921-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-15T03:30:26+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape