daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Tue Sep 22

Minneapolis high ≥ 64°F · Tue Sep 22

43¢

american +131 · decimal 2.31

on the tape

The line is the official NWS forecast at open. Settles on the ACIS official NWS daily record.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 64°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

rrfs		90¢
hrrr		70¢
eps		63¢
ndfd		59¢
wn2		58¢
aifs		58¢
nbm		41¢
hres		40¢
icon		6¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

56–57°F1¢

58–59°F6¢

60–61°F19¢

62–63°F30¢

64–65°F27¢

66–67°F13¢

68–69°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,055 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.207.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE64 · opened 2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape