— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
53¢
nbm
53¢
icon
52¢
eps
37¢
hres
23¢
wn2
17¢
aifs
13¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F23¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 12,750 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.205 vs climatology 9.246.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-16T03:36:18+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape