— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
56¢
eps
28¢
icon
23¢
wn2
22¢
hres
11¢
aifs
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F4¢
60–61°F8¢
62–63°F14¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F20¢
68–69°F16¢
70–71°F11¢
72–73°F5¢
74–75°F2¢
76–77°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,649 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.513 vs climatology 9.258.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260922-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-15T08:01:24+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape