— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
ndfd
54¢
nbm
45¢
wn2
30¢
eps
25¢
icon
24¢
hres
24¢
aifs
12¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F17¢
64–65°F27¢
66–67°F26¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F5¢
72–73°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,107 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.557 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260924-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-18T03:02:44+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape