— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
98¢
wn2
94¢
aifs
85¢
hres
82¢
icon
82¢
eps
80¢
nbm
57¢
ndfd
56¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F5¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F23¢
70–71°F26¢
72–73°F19¢
74–75°F9¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,009 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE68 · opened 2026-09-22T02:42:28+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape