— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
rrfs
87¢
wn2
66¢
ndfd
56¢
aifs
52¢
hres
50¢
eps
30¢
hrrr
22¢
icon
22¢
nbm
8¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F2¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F25¢
72–73°F18¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,009 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-19T03:08:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape