— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
11¢
ndfd
10¢
hres
6¢
nbm
4¢
wn2
2¢
aifs
2¢
eps
0¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
62–63°F1¢
64–65°F4¢
66–67°F13¢
68–69°F24¢
70–71°F28¢
72–73°F20¢
74–75°F8¢
76–77°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,108 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.736 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260925-TMAX-GE81 · opened 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape