— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
aifs
66¢
wn2
63¢
ndfd
54¢
nbm
46¢
eps
41¢
hres
26¢
icon
11¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F4¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F18¢
66–67°F24¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F14¢
72–73°F6¢
74–75°F2¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,009 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE71 · opened 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape