— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
nbm
69¢
aifs
57¢
ndfd
53¢
wn2
48¢
eps
23¢
hres
23¢
icon
10¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F3¢
62–63°F10¢
64–65°F20¢
66–67°F27¢
68–69°F22¢
70–71°F12¢
72–73°F4¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,059 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.177.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-19T07:39:57+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape