daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Sat Sep 26

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 80°F+ · Sat Sep 26

2¢

american +5888 · decimal 59.88

on the tape

80°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 80°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		13¢
wn2		9¢
ndfd		5¢
nbm		4¢
hres		4¢
eps		0¢
icon		0¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

60–61°F2¢

62–63°F7¢

64–65°F16¢

66–67°F24¢

68–69°F24¢

70–71°F16¢

72–73°F7¢

74–75°F2¢

calibration receipt: lead 3, scored on 13,009 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.947 vs climatology 9.192.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20260926-TMAX-GE80 · opened 2026-09-19T07:39:58+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape