— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
66¢
aifs
63¢
eps
55¢
nbm
55¢
hres
33¢
icon
19¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
60–61°F1¢
62–63°F3¢
64–65°F6¢
66–67°F10¢
68–69°F15¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F17¢
74–75°F13¢
76–77°F9¢
78–79°F4¢
80–81°F2¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 5, scored on 12,911 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.514 vs climatology 9.192.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE72 · opened 2026-09-20T07:45:47+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape