— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
60¢
nbm
55¢
ndfd
53¢
icon
45¢
hres
34¢
aifs
30¢
eps
14¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F1¢
60–61°F2¢
62–63°F6¢
64–65°F12¢
66–67°F17¢
68–69°F20¢
70–71°F18¢
72–73°F13¢
74–75°F7¢
76–77°F3¢
78–79°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,011 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.203 vs climatology 9.176.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20260927-TMAX-GE73 · opened 2026-09-21T03:20:48+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape