— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
icon
87¢
eps
86¢
aifs
80¢
wn2
71¢
hres
69¢
nbm
54¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
56–57°F1¢
58–59°F6¢
60–61°F17¢
62–63°F28¢
64–65°F28¢
66–67°F15¢
68–69°F5¢
70–71°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 2, scored on 13,422 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.737 vs climatology 9.081.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261002-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-09-25T19:39:41+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape