— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
eps
95¢
wn2
90¢
hres
87¢
aifs
82¢
nbm
56¢
icon
52¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
58–59°F2¢
60–61°F7¢
62–63°F15¢
64–65°F22¢
66–67°F23¢
68–69°F17¢
70–71°F8¢
72–73°F3¢
74–75°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,376 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.198 vs climatology 9.066.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261004-TMAX-GE59 · opened 2026-09-27T14:40:09+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape