— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.
Who's Bullish
each model's own price
wn2
98¢
aifs
98¢
icon
66¢
eps
62¢
nbm
56¢
hres
50¢
The Ladder
where the whole distribution sits
64–65°F1¢
66–67°F4¢
68–69°F9¢
70–71°F17¢
72–73°F22¢
74–75°F21¢
76–77°F15¢
78–79°F7¢
80–81°F3¢
82–83°F1¢
calibration receipt: lead 4, scored on 13,478 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 2.158 vs climatology 9.039.
Receipts
prop id WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE65 · opened 2026-09-29T11:08:54+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape