daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Tue Oct 6

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 6

65¢

american -188 · decimal 1.53

on the tape

78°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 78°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

now		100¢
rrfs		98¢
ndfd		98¢
aifs		76¢
nbm		56¢
wn2		44¢
hres		38¢
icon		33¢
eps		27¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

70–71°F2¢

72–73°F9¢

74–75°F21¢

76–77°F29¢

78–79°F23¢

80–81°F11¢

82–83°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,730 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.524 vs climatology 9.015.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261006-TMAX-GE78 · opened 2026-09-29T08:08:17+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape