daily prop · Minneapolis, MN · Great Lakes & Upper Midwest · settles Wed Oct 7

Minneapolis runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Wed Oct 7

9¢

american +967 · decimal 10.67

on the tape

77°F is the top-decile high for this date at this station (1940–present). Hot means hot *for here*.

Canonical settlement condition: High ≥ 77°F. The original listing above is retained as published. Open the model matchup dashboard →

The Tape

what the models knew, when

— — reconstructed from archived model runs (deterministic values + a lead-dependent Gaussian error model, labeled, never on the tape) · — live prices from the running consensus engine.

Who's Bullish

each model's own price

aifs		58¢
eps		43¢
wn2		32¢
rrfs		21¢
hres		10¢
icon		9¢
ndfd		6¢
nbm		2¢

The Ladder

where the whole distribution sits

68–69°F3¢

70–71°F14¢

72–73°F31¢

74–75°F32¢

76–77°F16¢

78–79°F3¢

calibration receipt: lead 1, scored on 13,835 settled station-days, consensus CRPS 1.525 vs climatology 8.991.

Receipts

prop id WP-KMSP-20261007-TMAX-GE77 · opened 2026-09-30T08:18:15+00:00 · minted to the append-only hash-chained tape at open; the settle writes next to the mint · inspect the tape